A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
